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The Reform UK leader portrays his Reform UK party as a unique phenomenon that has burst on to the world stage, its meteoric rise an exceptional historic moment. But this week, in every one of Europe’s major countries and from India and Southeast Asia to the US and South America, hard-right, anti-immigration, anti-globalization parties similar to his are also leading in the public surveys.

In last Saturday’s Czech elections, the conservative, pro-Russian leader a prominent figure toppled the head of government Petr Fiala. A French political group, which has just forced the resignation of yet another France's leader, is ahead the polls for both the presidential race and parliament. In the German nation, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is currently the most popular party. A Hungarian political force, Slovakia's governing alliance and the Brothers of Italy are already in power, while the Freedom party of Austria (FPÖ), the Dutch PVV and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang – all hardline nationalists – are part of an global alliance of anti-internationalists, inspired by right-wing influencers such as a well-known figure, aiming to dethrone the global legal order, weaken fundamental freedoms and undermine multilateral cooperation.

Rise of Populist Nationalism

The populist nationalist surge reveals a new and unavoidable truth that democrats overlook at our peril: an authoritarian ethnic nationalism – once thought toppled with the Berlin Wall – has replaced economic liberalism as the leading belief system of our age, giving us a world of firsts: “US priority”, “Indian focus”, “Chinese emphasis”, “Russian primacy”, “my tribe first” and often “exclusive group focus” regimes. It is this ethnic nationalism that helps explain why the world is now composed of many autocratic states and fewer democratic ones, and ethnic nationalism is the force behind the breaches of global human rights standards not just by Russia in Ukraine but in almost every one of the world’s 59 cross-border conflicts and civil wars.

Understanding the Underlying Forces

Crucial to understand the root causes, widespread globally, that have fuelled this new age of nationalism. It begins with a widely felt sense that a globalization that was accessible yet exclusionary has been a free for all that has not been fair to all.

For more than a decade, political figures have not only been delayed in addressing to the millions who feel excluded and marginalized, but also to the changing balance of global economic power, moving us from a unipolar world once led by the United States to a multipolar world of competing superpowers, and from a system of international law to a power-based one. The ethnic nationalism that this has provoked means free trade is giving way to trade barriers. Where market forces used to drive politics, the politics of nationalism is now driving economic decisions, and already over a hundred nations are running mercantilist policies characterized by bringing production home and friend-shoring and by restrictions on cross-border trade, foreign funding and knowledge sharing, sinking international cooperation to its weakest point since the post-war period.

Hope in Global Public Sentiment

However, there is hope. The situation is not fixed, and even as it solidifies we can see optimism in the pragmatism of the global public. In a poll conducted for a major foundation, of thousands of individuals in dozens of nations we find a significant portion are less receptive to an divisive nationalist agenda and more willing to support global teamwork than many of the officials who govern them.

Across the world there is, perhaps surprisingly, only a small group of hardened anti-internationalists representing 16.5% of the world's people (even if a quarter in the United States currently) who either feel peaceful living between diverse communities is unattainable or have a win-lose perspective that if they or their country do well, it has to be at the cost of others doing badly.

But there are an additional group at the other end, whom we might call committed internationalists, who either still see cooperation across borders through free commerce as a mutually beneficial arrangement, or are what a prominent philosopher calls “locally engaged global citizens”.

Worldwide Public Position

The vast majority of the global public are somewhere in between: not narrow, inward-looking nationalists, as “US priority” ideology would suggest, or all-in cosmopolitans. They are patriotic but don’t see the world as in a permanent conflict between the “us” and the “others”, adversaries permanently set apart from each other in an irreconcilable gap.

Are most moderates favor a obligation-light or a responsible global community? Are they willing to accept responsibilities beyond their local area or community boundaries? Yes, under specific circumstances. A initial segment, about a fifth, will support humanitarian action to relieve suffering and are ready to act out of selflessness, backing emergency help for affected areas. Those we might call “good cause” multilateralists feel the pain of others and believe in something larger than their own interests.

Another segment comprising a similar percentage are pragmatic multilateralists who want to know that any taxes paid for international development are used effectively. And there is a final category, 21%, personally motivated collaborators, who will endorse cooperation if they can see that it advantages them and their communities, whether it be through guaranteeing them basic necessities or peace and security.

Forging a Collaborative Consensus

Thus a definite majority can be constructed not just for emergency assistance if funds are used wisely but also for international measures to deal with worldwide issues, like environmental emergency and pandemic prevention, as long as this case is argued on grounds of enlightened self-interest, and if we emphasize the reciprocal benefits that benefit them and their own country. And thus for those who have long questioned whether we work together from necessity or if we have a need to cooperate, the answer is each.

And this openness to cooperate across borders shows how we can turn back the anti-foreigner sentiment: we can defeat today’s negative, inward-looking and often aggressive and authoritarian patriotic extremism that demonises newcomers, outsiders and “others” as long as we advocate for a optimistic, globally engaged and inclusive national pride that responds to people’s need for community and connects to their immediate concerns.

Addressing Public Concerns

And while in-depth polls tell us that across the west, illegal immigration is currently the biggest national issue – and it's clear that it must quickly be brought under control – the snapshots of opinion also tell us that the people are even more concerned about what is happening in their personal circumstances and within their immediate neighborhoods. Last month, the UK Prime Minister gave an emotional speech about how what’s positive in the nation can drive out what’s bad, doing so precisely because in most developed nations, “dysfunctional” and “in decline” are the words people have for years most frequently used when asked about both our economy and community.

However, as the prime minister also reminded us, the far right is more interested in using complaints than ending them. A Reform leader hailed a ill-fated economic plan as “an excellent fiscal policy” since 1986. But he would also enact a comparable strategy – what was intended – the biggest ever cuts in government programs. The party's proposal to cut government expenditure by a huge sum would not repair downtrodden communities but damage them, turn citizen against citizen and destroy any sense of unity. Under a hard-right regime, you will not be able to afford to be ill, disabled, needy or at-risk. Every day from now on, and in every electoral district, the party should be asked which hospital, which school and which public service will be the first to be reduced or shut down.

Risks and Solutions

“This ideology” is economic theory at its most inhumane, more harmful even than monetary policy, and vindictive far beyond fiscal restraint. What the people are telling us all over the Western world is that they want their governments to rebuild our economies and our civic societies. “The party” and its global allies should be revealed day after day for policies that would devastate both. And for those of us who believe our greatest achievements could be in the future, we can go beyond highlighting the party's contradictions by presenting a argument for a improved nation that appeals not just to idealists, but to pragmatists, to personal benefit, and to the daily kindness of the British people.